Factors Influencing Oil Prices Amid Middle East Tensions

Jul 17, 2026

68 min

Jul 17, 2026 13:31

What could push oil above $90 after an 11% weekly surge?

## Oil Prices and Geopolitical Tensions

Brent crude oil prices are hovering around $85 per barrel, following an 11% increase over the past week. This surge is attributed to escalating tensions in the Middle East, particularly between the US and Iran, which have disrupted oil supplies through the Strait of Hormuz. This vital waterway is responsible for about 20% of global oil flows.

## Potential Catalysts for Price Increase

Despite the current price levels, Brent crude has not surpassed $87.55 this week. Analysts suggest that a prolonged disruption in the Strait of Hormuz or significant tightening of global oil inventories could push prices above $90. However, the market remains relatively calm, with traders anticipating potential diplomatic resolutions.

## Impact on Global Markets

The ongoing conflict has led to reduced tanker movements and increased security concerns, affecting oil shipments. The UAE has redirected some of its crude exports to avoid the Strait, while US refiners are experiencing record profit margins due to tightening diesel and gasoline supplies. Additionally, Russian diesel exports have decreased following Ukrainian attacks on refineries.

## Market Outlook

Traders are closely monitoring two key developments: the potential for a genuine supply shortage indicated by falling oil inventories and the likelihood of prolonged disruptions in Hormuz. Until these factors change, Brent crude is expected to remain below the $90 threshold, despite the volatile geopolitical environment.

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