WMO Predicts Strong El Niño Starting Mid-2026

Apr 25, 2026

55 min

Apr 25, 2026 09:31

WMO warns strong El Nino likely from mid-2026, driving global heat and rainfall shifts

## El Niño's Expected Impact

The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) has forecasted the development of a strong El Niño event beginning in mid-2026. This climatic phenomenon is anticipated to significantly influence global temperatures and alter rainfall patterns worldwide.

## Rising Temperatures and Rainfall Changes

According to the WMO's latest Global Seasonal Climate Update, sea-surface temperatures in the Equatorial Pacific are rising rapidly. This trend suggests the onset of El Niño conditions as early as May to July 2026. The forecast predicts a widespread increase in land surface temperatures and regional variations in rainfall over the next few months.

## Confidence in Forecasts

Wilfran Moufouma Okia, Chief of Climate Prediction at WMO, noted that climate models are in strong agreement regarding the emergence of El Niño. Although the spring predictability barrier presents challenges for precise forecasting, confidence in predictions is expected to improve after April.

## Characteristics of El Niño

El Niño is characterized by the warming of ocean surface temperatures in the central and eastern Equatorial Pacific. It typically occurs every two to seven years and lasts between nine to twelve months.

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